Stock Watch with Rafiki: Your Weekly Guide to the NGX (April 30th – 7th May, 2025) 

The Nigerian stock market opened the week on a negative note, as the NGX All-Share Index declined by 0.03% to close at 98,219.58 points on Monday, May 6. This dip reflected investor caution and profit-taking following previous weeks of sustained gains. The market’s performance was influenced by selloffs in Tier-1 banking stocks and select industrial goods equities. 

Despite the overall market dip, there were notable individual stock performances. Tantalizers Plc emerged as the top gainer, appreciating by 10% to close at ₦0.55. Daar Communications followed with a 9.84% gain, while PZ Cussons Nigeria rose by 9.63%. Other top performers included Deap Capital Management & Trust (+9.52%) and The Initiates Plc (+9.26%). 

On the flip side, Guinea Insurance led the list of laggards with a 10% loss, closing at ₦0.27. Morison Industries also recorded a 9.80% drop, while UPDC Real Estate Investment Trust declined by 9.35%. Additional losers included C&I Leasing (-8.33%) and CWG Plc (-7.14%). 

Market sentiment remained mixed, with activity levels reflecting cautious trading. As the week progresses, investors are expected to monitor macroeconomic developments and corporate earnings reports for further direction. 

Top Gainers  

Company Daily Gain (%) Price (₦) 
Ecobank (ETI) +10.00% 25.85 
Nestlé Nigeria +10.00% 1,210.00 
NNFM +10.00% 82.50 
Beta Glass +9.98% 132.80 
Austin Laz +9.94% 25.65 
Juli Plc +9.82% 3.02 
ABC Transport +9.68% 0.34 
Secure Electronic Tech +9.09% 0.24 
Red Star Express +8.76% 3.60 
International Breweries +8.16% 4.90 
(Trading Week 5th May, 2025)

Top Losers  

Company Daily Loss (%) Price (₦) 
Guinea Insurance -8.70% 0.21 
Daar Communications -6.78% 0.55 
VFD Group -6.59% 45.00 
Wapic Insurance -6.07% 0.31 
Regal Insurance -4.69% 0.22 
C&I Leasing -3.49% 3.04 
Sunu Assurances -3.45% 1.12 
Champion Breweries -3.33% 2.90 
Prestige Assurance -3.13% 0.31 
Chellarams Plc -2.61% 3.35 
(Trading Week 5th May, 2025)

Buy, Sell, or Hold? Rafiki’s Recommendations  

  1. Seplat Energy 

Price: N5,700 

P/E ratio:  9.31 

Market Cap: N2.55T 

Recommendation: Buy  

Seplat reported a substantial increase in revenue, reaching $809 million in Q1 2025, up from $180 million in the same period the previous year. This growth is attributed to a 167% rise in production, averaging 131,561 barrels of oil equivalent per day, surpassing the company’s guidance. The adjusted EBITDA also saw a significant increase to $401 million, reflecting strong operational performance.  

The company’s balance sheet remains robust, with a net debt reduction of 17% to $747 million and a pro-forma net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.56x. Additionally, Seplat declared a dividend of $0.046 per share, indicating confidence in its financial position.  

Considering the company’s strong financial performance, improved operational efficiency, and positive outlook, Seplat Energy Plc presents a compelling investment opportunity. 

  1. Aradel Holdings 

Price: N525 

P/E ratio: 7.22   

Market Cap: N2.28T 

Recommendation: Buy

Based on Aradel Holdings Plc’s Q1 2025 financial results, the stock presents a Buy opportunity for investors seeking exposure to Nigeria’s energy sector. 

Aradel reported a significant increase in revenue, reaching ₦199.9 billion in Q1 2025, up 97.6% from ₦101.1 billion in the same period the previous year. Profit after tax also rose by 55.3% to ₦34.2 billion. The company’s earnings per share increased to ₦7.77 from ₦5.10, indicating strong profitability. The company’s balance sheet remains robust, with total assets of ₦1.83 trillion and total equity of ₦1.44 trillion. Aradel’s net foreign exchange position improved, recording a gain of ₦220 million in Q1 2025 compared to a loss of ₦21.32 billion in Q1 2024. Considering the company’s strong financial performance, improved operational efficiency, and positive outlook, Aradel Holdings Plc presents a compelling investment opportunity. 

  1. Transcorp 

Price: N145 

P/E ratio:  99.32 

Market Cap: N1.43T 

Transcorp Hotels Plc reported a significant revenue increase of 52% in Q1 2025, rising from N13.83 billion to N21.01 billion year-on-year. However, net income remained relatively flat at N5.05 billion compared to N5.03 billion in Q1 2024. The company’s P/E ratio stands at approximately 99.4x, which is substantially higher than the industry average of 9.9x, indicating potential overvaluation. Given the high P/E ratio and stagnant net income growth, investors should approach with caution. The stock appears overvalued, and it may be prudent to hold off on purchasing until a more favorable valuation is presented. 

  1. TotalEnergies 

Price: N705 

P/E ratio: 15.08   

Market Cap: 215.43B 

Recommendation: Hold

Given the current financial performance, it is advisable for investors to hold their positions in TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria Plc. The company has demonstrated resilience in maintaining shareholder equity despite the recent losses. However, the significant declines in revenue and profit margins suggest caution. Investors should monitor upcoming financial reports to assess whether the company can stabilize and return to profitability before considering additional investments. 

  1. UACN 

Price: N34.50 

P/E ratio: 7.90 

Market Cap: N96.56B 

Recommendation:  

UACN’s strong operational performance, diversified business segments, and effective cost management strategies position it as a promising investment. The company’s low P/E ratio of 7.90 suggests it is undervalued relative to its earnings potential. Investors seeking exposure to Nigeria’s consumer goods sector may consider adding UACN to their portfolios. 

  1. Dangote Sugar 

Price: N37.00 

P/E ratio: -3.03  

Market Cap: N449.43B  

Recommendation: Sell  

Dangote Sugar reported a net loss of ₦3.2 billion in Q1 2025, a significant drop from a profit of ₦11.1 billion in Q1 2024. Revenue decreased by 28.6% to ₦74.5 billion. The negative P/E ratio indicates current unprofitability, raising concerns about the company’s financial health. The company’s declining financial performance suggests investors should consider exiting their positions. 

  1. Sunu Assurances  

Price: N4.93 

P/E ratio: 14.44 

Market Cap: N28.65B 

Recommendation: Sell  

While the P/E ratio is moderate, SUNU Assurance’s financials do not show significant growth or profitability improvements. The lack of strong financial performance suggests limited upside. 

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