Welcome back to Stock Watch with Rafiki — your AI-powered stock market analyst. Each week, Rafiki looks into the NGX, tracking the All-Share Index (ASI), top gainers and top losers in the market, and breaking down the key fundamentals driving market sentiment. Rafiki will recommend the stocks to have on your radar and share the latest insights to help you on your investment journey.
So, let’s see what wisdom Rafiki has for us this week — which stocks are ruling the Pride Lands, and which are fighting to survive?
Market Performance
The Nigerian equities market saw a turbulent start to the week as investors reacted sharply to a regulatory policy reversal from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The NGX Banking Index plunged 7% in pre-market trading on Monday after the CBN issued a circular suspending dividends, bonuses, and new foreign investments for banks benefiting from post-COVID regulatory forbearance. Though the index recovered some ground, it still ended the day down 3.98%.
The selloff spilled into Tuesday, with the broader All-Share Index (ASI) dipping below the 115,000 mark. Over the two sessions, the ASI lost a combined 519.38 points, closing Tuesday at 114,910.16, a 0.45% drop from Friday’s close.
Banking Sector Spotlight:
Major players in the FUGAZ group—AccessCorp (-10.48%), ZenithBank (-8.39%), FirstHoldCo (-10.18%), and UBA (-11.24%)—suffered steep losses over the two days, reflecting investor concern over potential capital strain. GTCO bucked the trend with a 5.8% gain on Tuesday, signaling investor confidence backed by its strong NPL coverage of 138.7%.
Market Summary
| Metric | June 17, 2025 | June 16, 2025 | % Change |
| All-Share Index (ASI) | 114,910.16 | 115,258.77 | -0.30% |
| Market Cap | N72.4 trillion | N72.6 trillion | -0.28% |
| Volume Traded | 787.2 million | 721.7 million | +9.1% |
| Year-to-Date Return | +11.64% | +11.98% | – |
Top 10 Gainers
| Rank | Stock | Price Gain (%) | New Price (₦) |
| 1 | LEARNAFRCA | +10.00% | ₄.18 |
| 2 | CILEASING | +10.00% | ₄.62 |
| 3 | MBENEFIT | +10.00% | ₁.10 |
| 4 | GUINEAINS | +10.00% | ₀.77 |
| 5 | ELLAHLAKES | +9.93% | ₄.76 (Mon) |
| 6 | LEGENDINT | +9.87% | ₇.79 |
| 7 | UPL | +9.82% | ₅.48 |
| 8 | DEAPCAP | +8.64% | ₀.88 |
| 9 | ROYALEX | +9.68% | ₁.02 |
| 10 | FIDSON | +9.64% | ₄₂.10 |
Top 10 Losers (June 16–17, 2025)
| Rank | Stock | Price Loss (%) | New Price (₦) |
| 1 | TRANSPOWER | -9.98% | 295.70 |
| 2 | NNFM | -10.00% | 101.30 |
| 3 | CILEASING | -9.68% | 4.20 (Mon) |
| 4 | OANDO | -9.97% | 58.25 |
| 5 | ELLAHLAKES | -9.87% | 4.29 (Tues) |
| 6 | OMATEK | -9.33% | 0.68 |
| 7 | UPL | -9.27% | 4.99 (Mon) |
| 8 | DEAPCAP | -8.99% | 0.81 (Mon) |
| 9 | CUSTODIAN | -8.63% | 22.75 |
| 10 | LEARNAFRCA | -8.43% | 3.80 (Mon) |
Investor Focus
- Most Active Stocks by Volume: ZenithBank (96.2M), GTCO (83.3M), UBA (65.1M), AccessCorp (64.2M), ETI (51.7M).
- Top by Trading Value: GTCO (₦6.2B), ZenithBank (₦4.2B), UBA (₦2.1B), Stanbic (₦1.6B), ETI (₦1.5B).
Market Outlook
Despite the heavy selloffs in banking stocks, mid- and large-cap resilience—especially in GTCO and the SWOOTs—could buoy the market. With the ASI sitting just below 115,000, sustained demand in non-banking blue chips may reignite upward momentum in the sessions ahead.
Buy, Sell, or Hold? Rafiki’s Recommendations
1. Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc
Price: ₦1.06
P/E: 11.4
Market Cap: ₦14.4 bn
Recommendation: Buy
Sovereign Trust turned heads with a 79% surge in profit after tax to ₦2.35 bn in FY 2024, supported by more than doubling of premium income and disciplined cost control. At a reasonable P/E and solid returns, it looks positioned to benefit from Nigeria’s underpenetrated insurance space.
2. Thomas Wyatt Nigeria Plc
Price: ₦0.00005
Market Cap: ₦0.73 bn
Recommendation: Sell
Nine months into FY 2024, Thomas Wyatt remained in the red with a ₦22.7 m net loss, offsetting a marginal Q3 profit; revenue continues to decline. With ongoing losses and limited upside, it’s best for investors to minimize exposure until stability returns.
3. Cornerstone Insurance Plc
Price: ₦3.99
P/E: 15.5
Market Cap: ₦58.5 bn
Recommendation: Hold
Cornerstone posted a robust ₦28.6 bn pre-tax profit for FY 2024, followed by a final dividend announcement. Q1 2025 financials were delayed, prompting caution. The strong earnings profile makes it a HOLD—watch closely for Q1 results before adding more.
4. Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO)
Price: ₦42.30 (as of mid‑June)
P/E: 14.0
Market Cap: ₦~1.1 tn
Recommendation: Buy
GTCO posted a commanding ₦300 bn PBT in Q1 2025, backed by a 41% rise in interest income and a diversified income mix. A CAR of 34.6% and low impairment costs (CoR 0.4%) highlight excellent capital and risk management. Given its dominance and attractive valuation, GTCO remains an excellent buy.
5. Berger Paints Nigeria Plc
Price: ₦25.00
P/E: ~21.8
Market Cap: ₦7.8 bn
Recommendation: Buy
Q1 2025 revenue rose 23% YoY to ₦2.97 bn, and net income more than doubled to ₦309 m, with EPS jumping from ₦0.48 to ₦1.07. With 19% earnings growth, ~19% ROE, and clear momentum in Nigeria’s paint and coatings space, Berger offers growth at a sensible valuation.
