Welcome back to Stock Watch with Rafiki — your AI-powered stock market analyst. Each week, Rafiki looks into the NGX, tracking the All-Share Index (ASI), top gainers and top losers in the market, and breaking down the key fundamentals driving market sentiment. Rafiki will recommend the stocks to have on your radar and share the latest insights to help you on your investment journey.  

So, let’s see what wisdom Rafiki has for us this week — which stocks are ruling the Pride Lands, and which are fighting to survive?

Market Performance

Over the week in review, the Nigerian stock market exhibited a mixed performance, with three consecutive sessions of marginal declines followed by a slight rebound on April 15.  On April 9, the NGX All-Share Index fell by 0.18%, dropping 189.73 points to close at 104,187.00 from 104,376.73. This drop occurred amid decreased trading activity, as daily volume fell by 18.23% to 376.6 million shares. Market capitalization declined slightly to ₦65.4 trillion. Leading the gainers were LIVESTOCK and VFDGROUP, each up by 10%, while HMCALL and LEARNAFRCA shed 10%. GTCO and ACCESSCORP led trading activity, with GTCO facilitating ₦4.09 billion in deals.

On April 11 (April 10 being a public holiday), the market saw a slight upward move. The ASI increased by 376.34 points (0.36%) to close at 104,563.34, up from 104,187.00. Market capitalization rose to ₦65.7 trillion. Trading volume increased to 379.9 million shares, with banking stocks such as ACCESSCORP, UBA, and FIDELITYBK seeing notable activity. On April 14, the All-Share Index retraced again, declining by 33.72 points (-0.03%) to settle at 104,529.62. Despite this, trading volume rose significantly by 12.7% to 428.1 million shares, suggesting active participation, especially in the banking sector. ACCESSCORP led with 55.9 million shares, closely followed by ZENITHBANK (55.4 million). However, market capitalization dipped to ₦65.6 trillion. Among gainers were ABBEYBDS (+9.95%) and UPDC (+9.82%), while INTENEGINS (-9.76%) and CONHALLPLC (-8.33%) led the losers.

Finally, on April 15, the market posted a marginal gain of 0.03%, with the ASI closing at 104,560.02. Market volume decreased to 368.7 million shares, reflecting some profit-taking or cautious repositioning by investors. FIDELITYBK led in volume, while MTNN, GTCO, and ZENITHBANK dominated trading by value. Market capitalization edged back up to ₦65.7 trillion. Although still below the psychological 105,000 level, the ASI’s resilience hints at consolidation rather than a sharp correction.

In terms of sector performance, SWOOT and FUGAZ stocks offered mixed results throughout the week. ZENITHBANK and ACCESSCORP saw consistent interest, with the former topping value charts twice during the week. MTNN also remained a major player in high-value transactions, despite minor price fluctuations.

The market remains in a retracement phase. However, renewed interest in blue-chip stocks and occasional volume surges indicate possible stabilization or a cautious uptrend as earnings season unfolds.

Market Gainers

Stock	Price Gain (%)	Closing Price (₦)
ABBEYBDS	+9.94%	7.41
UNILEVER	+9.65%	38.05
LEARNAFRCA	+8.33%	3.25
NSLTECH	+7.41%	0.58
CONHALLPLC	+7.27%	2.95
ROYALEX	+6.87%	1.71
THOMASWY	+6.67%	2.08

Market Losers

Stock	Price Loss (%)	Closing Price (₦)
NNFM	-9.97%	79.00
TIP	-9.57%	4.25
CAVERTON	-9.06%	2.31
WAPIC	-8.85%	2.06
GUINEAINS	-8.70%	0.63
TANTALIZER	-7.69%	0.36
CORNERST	-7.14%	1.30

Buy, Sell, or Hold? Rafiki’s Recommendations 

1. Nigeria Exchange Group

Current Price: ₦31.50

Market Capitalization: ₦69.45B

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 6.44

Recommendation:  Buy

Nigerian Exchange Group Plc is currently trading at ₦31.50, with a market capitalization of ₦69.45 billion and a P/E ratio of 6.44, which reflects an undervalued stock relative to its earnings. The group posted strong results for the 2024 financial year, with revenue rising to ₦14.9 billion and profit after tax increasing to ₦5.3 billion, both showing healthy year-on-year growth. Its solid earnings, relatively low valuation, and potential upside tied to capital market activity and investor participation make it an attractive option for long-term investors. The stock is fundamentally strong and trading at a compelling valuation, offering potential for capital appreciation and dividend income.

2. Geregu Power

Current Price: ₦1,141.50

Market Capitalization: ₦2.85 Trillion

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 104.83

Recommendation: Sell, it’s overvalued

Geregu Power Plc is currently trading at ₦1,141.50, with a market capitalization of ₦2.85 trillion and a sky-high P/E ratio of 104.83, indicating significant overvaluation relative to its earnings. Despite reporting growth in profit after tax — from ₦16.5 billion in 2023 to ₦20.1 billion in 2024—the valuation suggests the market has priced in extremely optimistic expectations. This level of pricing leaves little room for upside unless the company delivers explosive growth or expands capacity drastically, both of which carry execution risks in Nigeria’s unstable power sector. Sell. The stock appears significantly overvalued compared to fundamentals, and there are likely better-valued opportunities in the market offering stronger risk-adjusted returns.

3. Eco Bank

Current Price: ₦26.85

Market Capitalization: ₦660.31 Billion

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 1.68

Recommendation:  Hold or sell

Eco Bank Group posted strong earnings in 2024, with profit after tax rising to $476 million, up from $261 million in 2023—an 82% increase. The bank also achieved a 38.6% return on tangible equity and improved cost-to-income ratio to 54.4%. However, despite these solid results, the stock has had limited price movement and still trades at a discount, possibly due to geopolitical risks across operating regions and investor caution toward cross-border financial institutions. Hold for now to monitor if strong earnings momentum translates into improved investor sentiment and price appreciation. Sell partially if better opportunities with less regional risk or more market confidence are available.

4. Wema Bank

Current Price: ₦11.95

Market Capitalization: 256.09 Billion

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 2.28

Recommendation: Buy

Wema Bank’s 2024 audited financials reflect strong growth, with gross earnings rising 71% year-on-year to ₦226 billion and profit after tax increasing 105% to ₦35.9 billion. Return on equity is healthy at 28.7%, and cost-to-income ratio has improved to 62.3%, reflecting better operational efficiency. With strong deposit growth, solid profitability, and an attractive valuation relative to peers, Wema Bank offers significant upside potential. The stock is undervalued relative to earnings and performance, making it an attractive option for value and growth investors.

5. Unilever

Current Price: N38.05

Market Capitalization: ₦218.6 Billion

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 13.16

Recommendation: Hold

Unilever posted strong results in its latest financials, with revenue growing by 39% year-on-year to ₦104.45 billion and profit after tax rising by 120% to ₦14.46 billion. With a clean balance sheet, zero interest-bearing debt, and a solid cash position of ₦72.1 billion, Unilever appears financially healthy and operationally efficient. However, at a P/E of over 13, the stock is moderately valued and may already reflect much of the recent growth. Hold for now, but keep an eye on performance consistency and compare with better-valued consumer stocks for potential rotation.