Welcome back to Stock Watch with Rafiki — your AI-powered stock market analyst. Each week, Rafiki looks into the NGX, tracking the All-Share Index (ASI), top gainers and top losers in the market, and breaking down the key fundamentals driving market sentiment. Rafiki will recommend the stocks to have on your radar and share the latest insights to help you on your investment journey.  

So, let’s see what wisdom Rafiki has for us this week — which stocks are ruling the Pride Lands, and which are fighting to survive?

Market Performance

The Nigerian stock market wrapped up the week ending March 28, 2025, on a positive note, with the All-Share Index (ASI) gaining 697.68 points. This 0.66% weekly increase saw the index climb from 104,962.96 to 105,660.64, reclaiming the critical 105,000 level. Trading activity showed strong momentum, rising by 4.96% as the volume of shares traded increased from 2.9 billion to 3 billion. The market capitalization followed suit, crossing the N66 trillion threshold, up from N65.8 trillion to N66.2 trillion. In terms of stock performance, 43 equities appreciated, a significant improvement from the previous week’s 32 gainers. Meanwhile, 36 stocks recorded declines, compared to 48 in the prior week.

Key Highlights of the Week

• The NGX Premium Index gained 0.50%, supported by over 3% increases in FIRSTHOLD and ZENITHBANK, along with moderate gains in ACCESSCORP and UBA.
• The NGX 30 Index climbed 0.71%, while the NGX Main Board Index advanced 0.75%.

 

Sectoral Performance

• The NGX Banking Index led the charge with a robust 5.61% gain, fueled by an 18.21% surge in GTCO. Other key contributors included FIDELITY, ZENITH BANK, STERLING, ACCESSCORP, JAIZ BANK, and UBA.
• The NGX Insurance Index rose by 1.89%, driven by strong performances from MUTUAL BENEFITS ASSURANCE, SUNU ASSURANCES, and UNIVERSAL INSURANCE.
• The NGX Consumer Goods Index posted a modest gain of 0.33%, while the NGX Industrial Goods Index edged up 0.01%.
• The NGX Oil and Gas Index was the outlier, declining by 1.65%, with losses from ETERNAOIL, OANDO, and ARADAL.

Market Outlook
The All-Share Index appears to be undergoing a correction, reclaiming the 105,000 level after a brief dip. If banking stocks and other strong sectors maintain their momentum, the ASI could break past the 106,000 mark in the coming weeks. A major factor influencing investor sentiment is the impressive earnings season, with Nigerian banks posting staggering profits. The FUGAZ banks—First Bank, UBA, GTCO, Access Bank, and Zenith—have all exceeded N1 trillion in top-line revenues, driving substantial dividend payouts.

Even smaller banks have delivered remarkable results:

• Ecobank reported profits exceeding N900 billion.
• Wema Bank saw a surge to N102 billion in 2024.
• Zenith Bank posted a record N1 trillion profit.
• Fidelity Bank reported N385 billion.
• GTCO matched Zenith with N1 trillion.
• UBA recorded a solid N766.5 billion.

With such strong earnings fueling investor confidence, the market’s positive trajectory could continue in the near term.

Market Gainers

Mutual Benefits Assurance Plc led the list of gainers with a 56.72% increase week-to-date, followed by Sunu Assurances Nigeria Plc, which rose 33.27%. Other significant gainers were:

• Abbey Mortgage Bank Plc: +31.39%, N4.73
• Royal Exchange Plc: +31.25%, N1.05
• E-Tranzact International Plc: +19.79%, N5.75
• Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc: +18.21%, N68.80
• Universal Insurance Plc: +15.38%, N0.60
• Nig. Flour Mills Plc: +9.96%, N87.75
• Learn Africa Plc: +9.93%, N3.32
• S C O A Nig. Plc: +9.02%, N4.47

Market Losers

At the forefront of the declining stocks was Africa Prudential Plc, which dropped 60.45% week-to-date, followed by CWG Plc at 11.11%. Other notable decliners included:

• John Holt Plc: -10.00%, N7.74
• Uh Real Estate Investment Trust: -9.93%, N51.25
• United Capital Plc: -9.84%, N16.50
• Associated Bus Company Plc: -9.80%, N1.38
• Daar Communications Plc: -9.09%, N0.60
• Updc Real Estate Investment Trust: -9.09%, N5.50
• Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc: -8.06%, N33.10
• Custodian Investment Plc: -6.70%, N19.50

Buy, Sell, or Hold? Rafiki’s Recommendations 

1.    UAC of Nigeria

Current Price: N35.50

Market Capitalization: N103.88B

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 6.80

Recommendation: Buy

UAC of Nigeria (UACN) has a P/E ratio of 6.80, which is relatively low, suggesting that the stock is undervalued compared to its earnings potential. The company’s financial statements show steady revenue growth, improved profit margins, and a solid balance sheet, which means this could be a good buying opportunity. However, investors should monitor potential risks such as inflationary pressures, cost of goods sold, and overall economic conditions that may impact profitability.

2.    Cadbury

Current Price: N23.55

Market Capitalization: N53.7B

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: -4.92

Recommendation: Sell

Cadbury Nigeria Plc has a negative P/E ratio of -4.92, indicating that the company is currently operating at a loss. With a market capitalization of ₦53.7 billion, the company still holds a strong market presence, but its current financial performance raises concerns. Unless there is a clear turnaround strategy or signs of profitability in upcoming financial reports, it may be best to sell and reallocate funds to more fundamentally strong stocks.

3.    Zenith Bank

Current Price: N47.00

Market Capitalization: N1.93 Trillion

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 1.43

Recommendation: Buy

Zenith Bank Plc is currently trading at ₦47.00 with a market capitalization of ₦1.93 trillion and a low P/E ratio of 1.43 which suggests the stock is undervalued, making it an attractive opportunity for investors. The bank has a strong reputation for profitability, consistent dividend payments, and solid financial performance. Given its undervalued status, growth potential, and dominance in the Nigerian banking sector, buying at this price could provide significant upside for long-term investors.

4.    Wema Bank

Current Price: 10.70

Market Capitalization: N229.3B

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 2.75

Recommendation: Buy

Wema Bank is currently priced at ₦10.70 with a market capitalization of ₦229.3 billion and a P/E ratio of 2.75. A low P/E ratio suggests the stock is undervalued, presenting a strong buying opportunity. Wema Bank has demonstrated steady growth, and with its continued investment in digital banking (notably ALAT), it has positioned itself for long-term expansion. For investors seeking exposure to the Nigerian banking sector, Wema Bank presents a solid buy opportunity with potential for capital appreciation.

5.    GTCO

Current Price: N68.80

Market Capitalization: N1.97T

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 1.94

Recommendation: Buy

GTCO (Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc) is currently priced at ₦68.80, with a market capitalization of ₦1.97 trillion and a P/E ratio of 1.94 which suggests the stock is undervalued, making it an attractive option for investors seeking value in the banking sector. GTCO has a strong track record of profitability, solid asset quality, and a history of delivering strong returns to shareholders. Given its stable earnings, strong brand, and growth potential, GTCO is a buy for long-term investors looking for value and steady dividends.

6.    Okomu Oil Palm

Current Price: N545.20

Market Capitalization: N520.0B

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 14.92

Recommendation: Hold

Okomu Oil Palm Plc is currently trading at ₦545.20, with a market capitalization of ₦520.0 billion and a P/E ratio of 14.92. While the company has strong fundamentals and a solid market position in the agribusiness sector, its current valuation suggests limited short-term upside. The stock has seen significant appreciation and investors who already hold it may benefit from retaining their position while monitoring future earnings growth. For new investors, waiting for a better entry point or a dip in price before buying could be a prudent approach.

7.    VFD

Current Price: N47.20

Market Capitalization: N59.8B

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 7.29

Recommendation: Hold or Sell

VFD Group Plc is currently trading at ₦47.20, with a market capitalization of ₦59.8 billion and a P/E ratio of 7.29. The stock appears fairly valued based on its earnings performance. While it is not significantly undervalued, it is also not overpriced. Investors who already hold VFD may consider maintaining their position to see if the company continues its growth trajectory. However, if there are better investment opportunities elsewhere with higher growth potential or lower valuation, selling partially or fully to reallocate funds could be considered. Hold for now, but monitor the company’s next financials for signs of stronger momentum or potential weakness.

Financial Statements of Companies in the Recommendation Section: UAC of Nigeria, Wema Bank, Cadbury, VFD, GTCO, Zenith Bank, Okomu Palm Oil.