Welcome to Monday Moneying, a rundown of the biggest financial stories shaping Nigeria, delivered straight to you every Monday Morning!
In this week’s episode, President Tinubu signed the ₦54.99 trillion 2025 budget into law, setting the tone for next year’s economic plans. Meanwhile, the naira gained strength against the dollar, euro, and pound throughout February, bringing some much-needed relief in the FX market. Dangote Refinery also slashed petrol prices by ₦65 ahead of Ramadan, a move that will ease the price of fuel across filling stations like MRS who buy petrol from Dangote Refinery. Tony Elumelu — chairman of Transcorp Holdings, Operators of Transcorp Energy Limited and OML 17 — also hinted at the possibility of Transcorp playing in the crude oil refining sector. Babangida’s new book A Journey in Service got people talking, and the CBN decided to keep the MPR at 27.5%, staying cautious amid inflation worries.
Let’s get into it!
Tinubu Signs ₦54.99 Trillion 2025 Budget into Law
The new budget, nearly double the previous year’s, focuses on security, infrastructure, and economic reforms.
The Rundown
President Bola Tinubu has signed the ₦54.99 trillion ($36.6bn) 2025 budget into law, marking a 99.96% increase from 2024. The budget aims to boost revenue, stabilize the economy, and fund critical sectors like security, infrastructure, health, and education.
The Details
- The National Assembly approved an increased budget after Tinubu’s request, citing additional revenue from tax and customs reforms.
- Key assumptions include a crude oil benchmark of $75 per barrel, an exchange rate of ₦1,500/$1, and a target inflation drop from 34.8% to 15%.
- The budget introduces tax reforms, including a proposed a proposed increase in VAT to 12.5% by 2026 excluding essentials.
Naira Strengthens Against Dollar, Euro, and Pound in February 2025
The Rundown
The Nigerian naira surged in February, reversing its previous decline and appreciating against the US dollar, British pound, and euro in the parallel market. At a time in February, the black-market rate matched the official rate of N1510/$, marking the first time in nearly 2 years that the parallel market and official rates have converged! By the end of the month, the naira stabilized at about ₦1,500/$.
The Details
- The naira appreciated by 7.41% against the dollar (₦1,540/$), 4.5% against the pound (₦1,910/£), and 6.34% against the euro (₦1,550/€).
- As of February 28, 2025, the Nigerian Naira (NGN) is trading at approximately ₦1,500 per US dollar in both the official and parallel markets. This convergence indicates a unified exchange rate market
- CBN extended its $25,000 weekly forex sales to Bureau de Change operators until May, but analysts caution the gains may be temporary.
- The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebasing by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) resulted in a statistical decline in the headline inflation rate, indirectly boosting confidence in the naira. Read a detailed breakdown of the CPI rebasing and its implications here.
Dangote Refinery Cuts Petrol Price by ₦65 Ahead of Ramadan
The Rundown
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has lowered the ex-depot price of petrol from ₦890 to ₦825 per litre, effective February 27, 2025. This move, following a ₦60 cut earlier in February, is intended to reduce transportation costs and support economic recovery as Ramadan approaches.
The Details
- Pump prices will vary by region, with Lagos stations selling between ₦860-₦865 per litre, and prices reaching ₦895 in the South-South and South-East.
- The refinery assured a steady fuel supply, with surplus capacity for exports to strengthen Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves.
- This follows a similar price cut during the December 2024 festive period, where petrol prices were reduced by ₦70.50.
Tony Elumelu Hints at Plans for Future Oil Refining
The Rundown
Tony Elumelu, Chairman of Heirs Holdings and UBA Group, has shared Heirs Energies’ long-term plan to integrate refining operations. While the company is currently focused on increasing crude oil production and fertilizer manufacturing, Elumelu hinted that that refining would be a natural next step.
The Details
- Heirs Energies increased production at OML 17 from 21,000 to 53,000 barrels per day and aims for 100,000 barrels per day.
- Elumelu stressed the need to boost oil production to stabilize the naira, drive industrialization, and improve national security.
- While refining is a future goal, the company’s priority remains crude oil expansion, with the belief that higher production will make downstream integration seamless.
Babangida Publishes New Book A Journey in Service
The Rundown
Former Nigerian military ruler Ibrahim Babangida’s autobiography, A Journey in Service, has sparked widespread discussion. The book sheds light on pivotal moments during his leadership from 1985 to 1993, offering rare insights into decisions that shaped Nigeria’s history.
The Details
- 1993 Elections Annulment: Babangida expresses deep regret over annulling the election, acknowledging that Moshood Abiola won.
- Execution of a Childhood Friend: He recounts the difficult decision to approve the execution of Gen. Mamman Vatsa, a close friend, over an alleged coup plot.
- Nigeria’s First Coup: He challenges the narrative that the 1966 coup was an “Igbo coup,” highlighting the diverse ethnic involvement.
CBN Holds MPR at 27.5% Amid Inflation and FX Market Monitoring
The Rundown
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has decided to keep the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.5%, citing the need to monitor inflation and exchange rate trends. Governor Yemi Cardoso emphasized that while inflation is showing early signs of easing, it is too soon to consider rate cuts.
Key Decisions by the MPC:
- MPR: Held at 27.50%, reflecting a cautious stance.
- Asymmetric Corridor: Retained at +500/-100 basis points around the MPR.
- Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR): Maintained at 50.00% for Deposit Money Banks and 16% for Merchant Banks.
- Liquidity Ratio: Unchanged at 30.00%.
The Details
- Key Rates Unchanged: MPR remains at 27.5%, CRR at 50%, and Liquidity Ratio at 30% as the CBN adopts a cautious approach.
- Inflation Concerns: Food prices remain high, and premature easing could reverse recent economic gains.
- FX Market Reforms: CBN’s B-Match system and Nigeria Foreign Exchange Code aim to boost stability and investor confidence.
